Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Valid: Monday, January 20, 2025
Issued: Sunday, January 19, 2025 6:24 PM
Apologies for the tardiness of our forecast this evening. We had a family function this evening.
Summary:
The latest update to the Monday School Closing Outlook includes increased confidence for significant weather impacts across much of coastal West Michigan. This has resulted in an elevated outlook for school closures across several areas.
Note:
This outlook does NOT factor in any schools that are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day/Inauguration Day and assumes that all schools would be operating as normal. Just because your school is already scheduled to be closed does not mean that everyone is. Please be respectful and courteous of that.
Discussion:
A powerful arctic system, strengthened by frigid air plunging directly from the North Pole, continues to impact the Great Lakes region. This system is fueling heavy lake-effect snowfall, strong winds, and dangerously low wind chills, all of which are creating hazardous conditions conducive to potentially widespread school closings along the coastal counties.
Snowfall:
As the cold arctic air interacts with the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan, intense instability is generating heavy lake-effect snow bands. The latest forecast suggests snow accumulations of 4-8 inches in areas near and south of Muskegon along US-31 by Monday morning, January 20, 2025.
Primary Impact Zones:
The highest accumulations are expected near the Lake Michigan shoreline, particularly from Ludington to South Haven.
Areas further inland, east of US-131, are likely to see lower snowfall totals, closer to 1-3 inches by the same time frame. This is due to the westerly wind direction, which has not yet shifted to transport snow farther east.
The increased certainty in localized 6-8 inch totals in some shoreline areas supports higher probabilities for closures.
Blowing Snow & Reduced Visibility:
Strong northwest winds, gusting up to 30-35 MPH, are anticipated overnight Sunday into Monday morning. These winds will interact with the fine, dry lake-effect snow, leading to widespread blowing and drifting snow.
Visibility Impacts:
Reduced visibility to less than 1/4 mile is expected in many areas along US-31.
Blowing snow will also create challenging driving conditions throughout the day, even in areas receiving lighter snowfall totals.
These factors will further worsen travel conditions, particularly for early morning commutes, making it highly likely for school closures in the hardest-hit areas.
Temperature & Wind Chill: Temperatures are expected to drop below 5°F to 10°F across the entire region Monday morning, with wind chills ranging from -15°F to -20°F.
Health Risks:
Wind chills of this magnitude can cause frostbite in as little as 10-15 minutes.
Prolonged exposure can lead to hypothermia, particularly for children waiting at bus stops.
While these wind chills are not quite at the automatic school-closing threshold, they are a significant contributing factor to the likelihood of closures.
The combination of heavy snowfall, blowing and drifting snow, and dangerously cold wind chills supports a high likelihood of school closings across the region, especially for areas west of US-131. While inland areas have lower probabilities, any shift in wind direction could bring heavier snowfall and increase closure potential.
As the forecast evolves, further updates may upgrade certain areas to the highest closure probability (>91%) if snowfall and wind impacts align with the most aggressive model predictions.
-Day 1 Forecast Discussion Created By Owen Drake-
Stay tuned for updates for Tuesday and Wednesday school closing chances in our forecasts tomorrow evening.
Day 2 School Closing Outlook
Valid: Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Issued: Sunday, January 19, 2025 6:24 PM
Summary: Additional snow days, likely more widespread, are forecasted on Tuesday due to additional heavy lake-effect snow that will reach farther inland, continued areas of blowing and drifting snow, and even colder temperatures and wind chills.
West Michigan Weather spends a lot of time making these snow day predictions. It is our goal to make all of our pertinent forecasts available to everyone. However, because this is a Day 2 Prediction and not a Day 1 Prediction and we consider this a premium benefit for those who do support us, we do ask that you help support us by donating to our organization if you are able!
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The Day 1 Snow Day prediction will be available to everyone tomorrow afternoon!