Summary:
After a dry, mild, and pleasant day today (Sunday), our attention turns towards our chances for severe thunderstorms early this week. Both Monday and Tuesday have the potential for severe weather with a couple of different rounds possible, especially on Tuesday.
Overnight Monday to Tuesday Morning:
First, our attention is on Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. A complex and difficult forecast is shaping up with our severe potential here. The SPC has outlined a skinny Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather along and west of a line extending from South Haven to Big Rapids to Cadilac. This Marginal Risk is driven by a 5-15% risk of damaging wind gusts. The threat of hail or tornadoes is largely negligible (less than 5% and less than 2% respectively).
So why is this forecast so complex? Well, there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms to form along a cold front in Minnesota and Wisconsin and track east towards far western and northwestern lower Michigan late in the evening, but more likely overnight.
The problem is that the confidence in storms actually developing along the aforementioned cold front on the other side of the lake is rather low. A remarkably stout (strong) elevated mixed layer ("Cap" - Layer of warm, dry air above a layer of warm, moist air at the surface - acts as a mechanism to prevent storm development) will be in place across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. If storms cannot develop in Minnesota and Wisconsin because of the "Cap" then we will likely not see this risk of mature MCS (Mesoscale Convective System - in this case; a linear segment of showers and storms) posing a threat for damaging winds here in the overnight hours on Monday and into the early morning on Tuesday.
We'll continue to watch this and will provide updates as needed.
Tuesday Afternoon/Evening:
Yet another complex forecast scenario is in play for Tuesday and is conditional, to at least some degree, on how the potential MCS scenario from overnight Monday plays out.
If an MCS does develop and impact western/northwestern lower Michigan late Monday into early Tuesday, as some models suggest, it will likely be weakening and largely out of our coverage area shortly after the noon hour on Tuesday.
A cold front will be moving into the area later in the afternoon and additional shower and thunderstorm development is possible as we head into the evening hours on Tuesday. This is conditional again, on if/how the MCS performs in the morning and the resulting environment that is in place across the area.
For Tuesday afternoon and evening, it currently looks like the best chances for additional storm development and any related severe weather hazards, will be concentrated to south of the I-96 corridor, and maybe even as far south as to be along and south of the I-94 corridor.
Conclusion:
Once again, overall a very complex and low-confidence forecast for severe weather potential on Monday and Tuesday. Expect forecast adjustments with the various upcoming outlook and model updates.
Stay tuned to WMIWX Social Media and our website here for additional information!
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