We're still watching the severe weather threat for this upcoming Tuesday. There is still considerable computer weather model uncertainty that exists with this potential severe weather event but it is definitely worth watching and paying attention to the forecast.
The updated SPC Severe Weather Outlook, now for day 4, has significantly expanded the severe risk into most of lower Michigan and now includes the cities of Benton Harbor, Kalamazoo, Lansing, Battle Creek, Grand Rapids, Allegan, Ionia, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Saginaw, Holland, Flint, and Jackson.
As we stated yesterday, these extended-range outlooks are rare for Michigan, and while a Day 4 Outlook is certainly rare, it is not as rare as yesterday's Day 5. This does not appear, at this time, to be an unprecedented event by any means but it certainly needs to be watched and is certainly something to be taken seriously, as is any severe risk.
To reiterate, there is some pretty substantial computer weather model variability with this threat. This is to be expected when the system is still 4 to 5 days away.
We've had a chance to review the latest guidance from the local NWS Weather Forecast Offices that are in this risk, the latest computer weather model data, and the latest remarks from the SPC regarding this risk and the bottom line is that there is some risk for severe weather across the region on Tuesday.
Several questions remain including the timing of storms, the ability for storms to develop, and the potential for early morning convection to drain the environment. Again, these questions are common for this stage in the forecast and we just need to continue to watch this threat.
The main hazards at this time look to be damaging winds associated with bowing segments in the line of storms and tornadoes. Large hail can't be ruled out at this point but appears to be less of a threat at this time. The intensity, coverage, and duration of this threat and what areas of the risk will be most prone to any one risk is yet to be determined.
We'll start to have a much better idea of what to anticipate starting tomorrow and Monday.
Stay tuned! Share this potential with your friends and family as this is not something people are planning on for February in Michigan!
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