Since November 7th 2001 the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Weather Outlooks for the "Day 3" period once per day to the public in order to increase awareness of potential severe weather events 3 days away.
On August 14th the NWS Storm Prediction Center announced that it has officially launched its new Day 3 Outlook Cycle. This new cycle will feature 2 releases rather than one. The first release of Outlook will be the initial forecast and will be issued at 3:30 AM EDT/2:30 AM EST (0730z) each day and the newest addition to the cycle will be an update to the outlook and will be released at 3:30 PM EDT/2:30 PM EST (1930z)
Each release will feature a "Categorical Outlook" which denotes the Categorical risk of Severe weather on a 1-5 (Marginal [1/5], Slight [2/5], Enhanced [3/5], Moderate [4/5], High [5/5]) scale (note that the maximum allowed risk level for the Day 3 Outlook is Moderate [4/5].)
Each release will also feature a "Probabilistic Outlook" which denotes the overall probability of Severe Weather within 25 miles of any given point on a 5-tier scale (5-14%, 15-29%, 30-44%, 45-59%, ≥60%).
The goal of this change is to provide the latest expert assessment of the Severe Thunderstorm potential across the conterminous U.S. in support of emergency planning and decision-making.
For more information on the SPC's Severe Weather Outlook system please view our related article below or check out this YouTube video!
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