Day 1 School Closing Outlook
www.WestMichiganWeather.net/School-Closings
Issued: Sunday, December 1, 2024 4:32 PM
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***NOTE: Due to the number of impactful winter weather events forecasted for the upcoming week we will likely only be issuing Day 1 Outlooks the evening before each day rather than doing Day 2 Outlooks in addition to the aforementioned Day 1 Outlooks. This is in an effort to avoid confusion and to simplify WMIWX's response to these weather events. Stay tuned for updates each day!***
Summary:
The first Winter Storm of the year will impact our lakeshore counties, especially Ottawa, Allegan, and VanBuren, overnight tonight bringing widespread snow total snow accumulations of 1-4 inches with localized amounts of more than 1 foot possible. Despite the challenges of predicting exactly where the highest snowfall totals will exist, we believe that widespread to numerous school closings are likely across much of the area West of US-131.
Discussion:
As aforementioned, the first winter storm event of the 2024/2025 winter season is expected overnight tonight and through the day Monday.
This event is forecasted to bring heavy snow to the lakeshore region with the heaviest and most persistent bands forecasted to impact portions of Allegan, Ottawa, and VanBuren Counties.
VanBuren, Ottawa, and Allegan Counties:
Across these areas we anticipate widespread school closures. Latest computer weather model guidance from the HRRR model suggests that several locations across this region will see as much as 10 inches of snow by 7:00 AM Monday morning and nearly all locations will see at least 3 inches.
This new snowfall combined with the snowfall from over this past weekend and the impressive forecasted snowfall rates of as much as 2 inches per hour will lead to widespread difficult travel caused by slick, snow-covered roads and rapid changes in visibility. Whiteout conditions are plausible at times.
Areas North of Muskegon and/or East of US-131:
School closure chances Monday morning across these areas is a little less certain as the majority of the snowfall is expected to occur later in the afternoon and evening on Monday. Still, we do expect scattered to widespread school closures, especially as you near the US-10 corridor along US-31 as school districts consider the possibility of heavy snow and poor travel conditions both in the morning, but also, during the afternoon commute home for students and staff.
Localized snow accumulations up to 8 inches are likely in these areas with widespread totals of around 1-4 inches. Even in areas that do not see the highest snowfall totals, the travel conditions in bands of heavy lake-effect snow will change rapidly.
The white dashed circle in our graphic above shows the most likely areas of preemptive school closings with little travel impacts for the morning commute but numerous impacts expected for the afternoon commute. Schools in this area may also opt to dismiss students and staff early rather than closing school. Regardless, the highest probabilities in this region of the map are in place to account for all three scenarios (outright closures, preemptive closures, or early dismissals).
Areas South of I-94 and/or East of US-131:
Similarly, school closure chances will quickly wane with Southward and Eastward extent as well, as snow totals from the Lake-effect snow in the morning quickly diminish. Still, we do expect scattered to perhaps widespread school closings and early dismissals across this region as school administrators look ahead to the afternoon commute home for students and staff which is expected to be impacted as well due to snow continuing through the day. Many areas in this region will see 5+ inches of snow by 3:00 PM in the afternoon and, again, the visibility impacts caused by the high snowfall rates will make travel, especially for school buses, all the more difficult.
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