A low-confidence but somewhat high-ceiling severe weather threat exists this evening across much of the area. This simply means that the potential for widespread severe weather with localized to scattered significant severe weather is possible - but confidence remains unusually low.
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western Lower Michigan in risks as high as a Level 3/5 Enhanced Risk for severe weather today.
Damaging wind gusts of 40-65 MPH and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are the primary concerns today. Other potential hazards include small to large hail, localized damaging wind gusts of 65-75 MPH, and an isolated tornado or two.
As aforementioned, heavy rainfall will be one of the main threats today; given the very recent excessive rainfall over the last week or so (especially for areas South of the I-96 corridor) it is very plausible that we see flooding and/or flash flooding later tonight.
Here is our preliminary storm timing graphic for today. This indicates (based on 4 color zones) which areas will see storms - when they'll arrive, when they'll reach peak intensity, and when those areas can expect the threat of severe weather to be ending.
We'll be keeping a close eye on official NWS forecast guidance and surface observations today, as well as radar trends and computer weather models and will provide updates later this afternoon as we are able to. Stay Tuned!
In terms of Live Storm Chasing potential... we're not sure if we'll be chasing. We are certainly setup to do so, but given the low-confidence forecast, we need to await additional forecast guidance before definitely saying that we'll be chasing. Stay tuned to social media for updates!
Comments