Saturday, August 24th, 2024
Summary:
Severe weather, very hot temperatures, and plenty of humidity are in the forecast again as summer makes an abrupt return to West Michigan over the next 4 or 5 days. We'll see near-daily shower and thunderstorm risks and some threats for severe weather, school closing potential due to the heat, and the general concerns for heat-related illness that always come up when we have multiple consecutive days of high heat index values. One more pleasant weather day today with highs in the low to mid 80's and relatively comfortable humidity values. That all changes tomorrow as the overall weather pattern across the US pushes very warm, humid air into the Great Lakes region.
Very Hot Weather - Concerns For Heat-Related Illness, School Closings Possible
The theme for this week will generally be surrounding the risk for very hot weather and high heat index values.
Beginning tomorrow, a very warm, humid air mass moves into Lower Michigan and will send temperatures soaring into the upper 80's and push heat index values into the low 90's. By Monday, and especially on Tuesday, we'll see temperatures nudge even further towards triple digits with highs well into the upper 80's to mid 90's across much of the area, especially south of I-94. Of course, while those temperatures are oppressive in of themselves, when you combine temperature values like that with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70's we really start to worry about the "Feels Like Temperature," or Heat Index. Heat index values on Monday and Tuesday will likely be well into the mid to upper 90s and some locations may see Heat Index values climb to over 100°F.
When we see heat index values over 90°F the threat for heat-related illness becomes a real concern, especially for vulnerable populations (children, the elderly, those who work outdoors, pets, and those with underlying health conditions). Make sure to check on these individuals through the middle of the upcoming week to ensure their safety and that they are staying cool and well-hydrated. Check with your local community to see if there are cooling shelters available if needed.
At this stage it is very likely that we will see school closings, especially across our Southern coverage area, South of I-94, on at least Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday as well. Schools that do not have A/C will be the most susceptible to this but given the widespread nature of this heat wave and the forecasted Heat Index values over 100°F I would not be surprised to see the vast majority of schools across West Michigan closed. Stay tuned for official School Closing Outlooks from West Michigan Weather.
Stay alert for the likely issuance of Heat Advisories and heed all instructions from the NWS and local officials. Remember, Heat Stroke is a medical emergency! Know the signs and call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat Stroke!
Severe Weather Threats
When we see temperatures and humidity values to the degree that we will see this week it is very common that we see daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The one caveat to this is that these types of weather patterns are often supportive of strong capping inversions as well. These "capping inversions" are mechanisms in the atmosphere that act to prevent thunderstorm development by suppressing strong updraft formation with a layer of warm, dry air above a slightly less warm, moist air mass. If we take a look back just 1 year ago we see a perfect comparison to the upcoming weeks severe weather threats. Today the 1 year anniversary of the August 24th 2023 tornadoes that occurred as a result of a very similar overall weather pattern (see end of post for more details). Several days of severe weather risk had been in place amidst very hot, humid weather but strong CAP's had prevented storm development... until 1 year ago this evening. The CAP finally broke and several tornadoes resulted including the Plainfield Township (Kent County) EF-1 tornado.
This week will be no exception. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has all of West Michigan in daily General thunderstorm risks and a few days also feature areas of, at least localized, severe weather risks as well. Strong capping inversions are expected to be in place for the week keeping a lid on thunderstorm chances for the most part. However, given the environment in place, if those capping inversions do break at any point we could very easily see severe thunderstorms.
Today (Saturday) 08/24/2024:
No severe weather is expected today but a few isolated showers or storms could develop this afternoon along and South of the US-10 corridor.
Tomorrow (Sunday) 08/25/2024:
An area-wide risk for showers and thunderstorms is in place for tomorrow. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) is also in place for areas along and South of I-96 and East of US-131. Damaging winds to 60 MPH and perhaps a small to large hailstone up to 1 inch in diameter is possible in the dark green shaded areas including Lansing, Jackson, Hillsdale, Marshall, and Battle Creek.
Monday 08/26/2024:
A second area-wide threat for showers and thunderstorms exists on Monday.
Severe weather threats should largely avoid our coverage area and be focused well to our Northwest across parts of Northwest Wisconsin and into Minnesota.
However, a low risk (level 1/5 - Marginal) does stretch through the UP and into the Northeastern side of Lower Michigan before stretching along Lake Huron towards Detroit. This level 1/5 risk area includes the Northeastern half of Clare County and the far Northeastern corner of Isabella County including Wise, Harrison, and all of the US-127 corridor from Clare to I-75.
Tuesday 08/27/2024
Tuesday is of greatest concern as of now, especially with regards to the amount of area included in the threat for severe weather.
Details surrounding the specific threats are very uncertain at this time but the SPC has enough confidence at this stage to introduce a 15-29% risk for severe weather across all of our coverage area and the rest of Lower Michigan.
For now, it appears that damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this risk but details that are more specific than that are not readily available at this time so our messaging for Tuesday will be: stay tuned for updates! Remember that these 15-29% risks issued by the SPC often equate to a Day 1 Slight Risk (level 2/5) or higher.
1 Year Anniversary of the August 24 2023 Tornadoes
As aforementioned, today is the 1 year anniversary of the August 24th, 2023 tornadoes. This included the Plainfield Township EF-1. For a full recap check out our review of the event by clicking the button below!
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