West Michigan Weather Reflects On April 5th 2023: A Narrow Miss For West Michigan!

April 5th 2023 is a day that is very familiar to meteorologists, storm chasers, and weather enthusiasts throughout the state of Michigan. A day that very easily could have seen several tornadoes, destructive hail, and strong damaging winds across the lower peninsula of Michigan.

Forecasters had been watching the severe weather potential for April 5th for several days now and had growing concerns surrounding the potential for intense tornadoes to occur across a large portion of the midwest, including lower Michigan.

By April 4th 2023 the Storm Prediction Center had confirmed these inclinations by issuing an Enhanced (Level 3/5) Severe Weather Outlook driven by a 10% Tornado Risk combined with a Significant Tornado Parameter.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (April 5th 2023) *Not A Valid Outlook*

NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Probabalisitic Tornado Outlook (April 5th 2023) *Not A Valid Outlook*

I very distinctly remember waking up and checking my phone almost immediately to see what the SPC Day 2 Outlook looked like... to say I was shocked by the 10% SIGTOR Risk was an understatement. I lept out of bed and went immediately to Owen's bedroom and woke him up from his sleep to inform him of this outlook. We were both in absolute shock.

As I am sure you all know, Owen and I absolutely love severe weather, and while we never wish to see anyone get hurt, or worse, or see any major property damage we are generally pretty giddy with excitement when there is severe weather threat... the adrenaline and the bewilderment of nature are something we both adore. But something about this threat... was different... ominous. We were genuinely a bit scared and we expressed that fear to our follower base, and more explicitly to our family.

I remember looking at computer weather models, specifically the HRRR (one of the high-resolution, more accurate, short-range weather models that we have available to us for forecasting severe weather), and seeing a tornadic supercell painted over our house and sending this text message to my family.

"**IMPORTANT:** This is my unofficial Tornado Watch for home for tomorrow."

"Weather models currently show a very concerning possibility for tornadoes with the potential of strong/long track tornadoes with our house as a bullseye."

I included the Day 2 Tornado Outlook graphic in that text to my family and Owen echoed my sentiments very closely by sending our makeshift forecast graphic to that text thread as well.

SPC Tornado Risk Categories

SPC Tornado Watch #125 (04/05/2023) *Not Valid*

So what actually happened on April 5th? Well, at 8:40 AM EDT the Storm Prediction Center issued Tornado Watch #125 for much of lower Michigan, including a large portion of our coverage area, highlighting the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts across much of the area with any of the more intense storms that could occur.

We were watching a line of showers and storms approaching West Michigan and we activated Storm Chase Mode and began working with our local EMA/SKYWARN Partners to provide storm coverage and reports to the NWS and our follower base.

Very quickly however, it became clear that this line of showers and storms was not of severe criteria and questions quickly arose... was this Tornado Watch for this round of storms? Or was there another round of afternoon storms that was the primary concern?

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion #0483 shows the aforementioned non-severe showers/storms during the late morning hours on 04/05/2023 and highlights the continued tornado and damaging wind risk.

This early morning convection would go on to tap the atmosphere and significantly reduce the available components needed to support severe weather and strong tornadoes. However, severe weather in its entirety was not completely absent from the day: a few damaging wind gusts were reported in lower Michigan including two with damage reports in Ottawa County.

SPC Storm Preliminary Storm Reports Map From 04/05/2023

So we had a couple of damaging wind reports... what's the big deal? Sounds like any other summertime day right?

That's the simple answer. We want to highlight what very easily could have happened: several tornadoes likely would have occurred had that initial round of showers come through the area during the late morning hours. A couple of those tornadoes could have been strong and/or long-tracked. Furthermore, the threat for very large hail to 2 inches in diameter and strong damaging wind gusts posed an even more widespread threat across Michigan.

This event very easily could have been the next Hudsonville 1965 (E)F4 Tornado. We've said this repeatedly as we move into spring and summer here in West Michigan: "It's not a question of IF a violent tornado can occur again in West Michigan. It's a question of WHEN will a violent tornado occur in West Michigan again."

The NWS in Grand Rapids, MI has echoed these sentiments saying "we are long overdue for another tornado event like the Hudsonville Storm."

We don't say these things in an effort to scare you. We are moving in to a severe weather season that, due to the overall global weather pattern, has the potential to be a more active, prolonged, and perhaps more significant/intense severe weather season than is normal for the Great Lakes and specifically the state of Michigan.

Make sure you're prepared for severe weather before a threat exists. Take the time to prepare now so that when the next significant severe weather event threatens to impact West Michigan your part of a Weather-Ready Nation!