Summary: After a mostly dry first half of the week, we'll see rain move in on Thursday morning. The system bringing this rain will also be the driving force behind the possibility of severe weather and flooding threats that may accompany the rain.
Severe Weather Threat:
Despite the very unstable to perhaps extremely unstable environment expected to be in place across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes regions only a relatively low, all-hazards severe risk is in place. This is largely due to the high probability that plenty of rain will tap into and erode the aforementioned instability.
Locally, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has placed a small portion of the Southwestern part of our coverage area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather on Thursday.
For now, we agree with this delineation... overall, we think our risk for severe weather in West Michigan is going to remain very low and I personally wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the Marginal risk shifted off to our South by the time Thursday rolls around... still, a lot can change between now and Thursday so, by no means, should we be discounting this low-end risk.
Any severe threat that does materialize here in West Michigan would likely be in the form of damaging wind gusts of 40-60 MPH.
Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat:
If memory serves me correctly, we've seen a well-above-average number of Excessive Rainfall outlook days here in West Michigan this summer, not to mention the number of Slight Risks we've had. These are pretty rare for a state that is so well-equipped to handle large amounts of water... (the Great Lakes make it pretty easy to find somewhere to put the water).
Thursday will be no different. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of West Michigan under yet another broad Marginal (Level 1/4) risk for Excessive Rainfall which means that there is a 5-14% chance for either the total amount of rainfall or the rates at which that rain falls to exceed Flash Flood Warning guidance within 25 miles of a point. A small Slight Risk (Level 2/4) is also in place across the far Southwestern portion of West Michigan and that holds a similar concept but with a 15-39% chance rather than a 5-14% chance.
Slow-moving rain showers and some thunderstorms, in an environment that is very well saturated (with PWAT - Precipitable Water - values approaching 2 inches) could very well result in widespread rain accumulation of over 1 inch and localized accumulations of over 2 inches through the day on Thursday and into Friday.
Bottom line: expect a rainy, gloomy Thursday. Be #WeatherAware and stay tuned for forecast updates and the possibility of severe weather and flooding.
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