Summary:
A rather common summer-time weather pattern that is historically favorable for some of our more appreciable severe weather threats here in West Michigan is setting up this weekend and looks to continue into early next week at the least. Currently, we are watching two specific days; Sunday and Monday, for severe weather potential, however, there could be some additional days, including tomorrow (Saturday), that we need to watch as well.
Saturday 07/13/2024:
Because there is not an official severe weather risk outlined by the SPC for Saturday (tomorrow) in their latest outlooks we won't dwell on this too much but we did want to highlight the potential for some thunderstorms, some of which could become strong to marginally severe, especially West of the US-131 corridor, for tomorrow. More on Sunday morning and evening below...
Sunday 07/14/2024:
Our primary attention is, again, on Sunday and Monday. First, we have to look at Sunday late morning and especially Sunday night. The SPC currently has nearly all of our coverage area in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather. One thing we need to highlight about all of these risks: these setups, or this weather pattern, which have a history of producing some notable severe weather events here in West Michigan, is that they are NOTORIOUSLY hard to forecast in advance - emphasis on the NOTORIOUS! In the past parts of West Michigan have gone from General Thunder (Level 0/5 - no severe weather expected) all the way to Moderate Risk (Level 4/5) in a 24 hour period. The difficulty with multi-day severe weather setups is that the storms from the previous day, or even storms earlier the same day greatly impact how everything will shake out. We don't say that to scare you, we say that so that you don't see the current level 1/5 risk and throw it out the window. We expect, and the NWS in Grand Rapids expects, this risk to expand/increase as the potential event draws nearer Saturday overnight into Sunday morning.
Monday Night / Tuesday Morning??? 07/15/2024:
We're also watching a very similar setup on Monday Night, but this time the ingredients for severe weather are more potent and seem to overlap each other a bit more. Currently, we are lacking high-resolution model guidance because it is still a few days out so we wont know exactly how things will transpire.
We could be looking at a round or two of severe storms again coming in from our North and West. As I said earlier, this looks like the best chance for widespread severe storms as the atmosphere looks what we call "thermodynamically" primed for strong impactful storms. We will again provide more updates as it draws near and we also anticipate the risk area to change some before the day is here. It will likely expand, get upgraded, and potentially more into or out of our coverage area, but we will keep you updated either way.
Needless to say, we have a busy few days ahead of us. One thing that will absolutely happen is very hot and humid conditions. We could be looking at dew points approaching the mid-70s!! Let this serve as a reminder to drink lots of water, wear sunscreen outside, and always be weather-aware.
Forecaster Jonah Drake (Saturday - Sunday Morning)
Forecaster Owen Drake (Sunday Night - Monday Night)
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