Summary:
Daily chances for showers and storms exist over at least the next 3 days. The threat of severe weather will accompany each of these chances for showers and storms. SUBSTANTIAL uncertainty, even in the short term, continues to be the theme of the forecast. Computer weather models are really struggling with how showers and storms will evolve over the next several days, and hence, how any severe weather may or may not perform.
In addition to the severe threats, high heat may be hazardous today and tomorrow, especially to the more vulnerable populations. Make sure to check on your friends and family! See my discussion from yesterday for additional thoughts on high heat.
School Closing Outlook Results:
Yesterday afternoon we issued a level 2/6 school closing risk. This equates to a 15-30% or lower chance for schools to close. This morning only 1 school was closed in our coverage area.
This pretty much aligns with our forecast discussion from yesterday that noted the fact that early dismissals are much more likely as compared to school closures and those chances accounted for the majority of the risk.
Overall, I'd say our outlook performed about as expected although it is difficult, if not impossible for us to determine if schools dismiss early this afternoon so no real good way to determine the actual accuracy of our outlook.
Still believe that more school closings/early dismissals are possible Tuesday, especially South of I-94 and for schools that do not have A/C but will defer to making outlooks for that potential until later tonight when we hopefully have updated heat weather alerts and more recent forecast discussions from the NWS to aid in our outlook messaging.
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) For Severe Weather Today:
A level 2/5 slight risk driven only by a 15-29% risk for damaging winds has been maintained as of 9:00 AM this morning for today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across the area this afternoon. Additionally, there is a low chance that a severe wind producing MCS (line of storms) that moves in very late in the period (very early tomorrow morning). As of now computer weather models don't show much in the way of activity for either of these timeframes for the majority of the coverage area, with the exception of the shower and storm activity mentioned in the first half of the discussion for tomorrow (see below), but we will defer to the experts at the SPC and will continue to highlight the risk for severe storms through the afternoon and overnight period today. Stay tuned and stay weather-aware. Again, damaging winds of around 60 MPH would be the only real concern with this activity should it develop.
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) For Severe Weather Tuesday:
There are several potential time frames for severe weather on Tuesday.
Showers and storms early Tuesday may pose an isolated strong to severe storm threat with damaging winds of 40-60 MPH being the primary concern as a complex of showers and storms moves in from the West. Current thinking with this line is that it will be concentrated along and North of M-20.
Depending on the evolution of those storms we may see additional showers and storms develop and these could pose a more scattered to widespread severe threat with damaging winds of ~60 MPH and large hail up to 1 inch in diameter possible during the afternoon hours.
This morning's forecast discussions from our local NWS offices don't make mention of this but some computer weather models, notably the 06z HRRR, suggest that a third potential time frame in the late evening hours may pose an additional risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms generally along and South of I-96.
Excessive Rainfall and minor flooding may also be a concern for Tuesday as the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a 5-14% risk for heavy rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Warning guidance across some of our Northwest counties.
Overall, Tuesday is a well-blended combination of lots of severe potential with little to no confidence in what scenario will unfold and whether or not severe weather will result. Messaging for Tuesday will continue to be "stay tuned for updates and be weather aware all day!"
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) For Severe Weather Wednesday:
A cold front displaced just away from the area will likely send several short waves (like ripples on water but in the atmosphere) through the region. Each of these short waves will have the ability to spark shower and thunderstorm activity.
While Wednesday will begin a cooler and less humid pattern there will still be plenty of moisture and at least elevated instability (storm fuel juice) to allow some of these storms to potentially become strong to severe posing a threat for damaging winds and large hail. The greatest threat for severe weather will be South of US-10 and along and East of US-131 though the potential exists across our entire coverage area.
We'll hold off on a more detailed discussion for Wednesday until a better forecast agreement is in place.
Thursday and Friday will also see shower and thunderstorm chances with another shot for strong to severe storms, especially on Friday, but details surrounding Thursday and Friday are even more unclear than the risks for earlier in the week so we'll also table further discussion on those threats.
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