Summary:
We are finally forecasting rain for West Michigan. This is much-needed rainfall for sure as we have gone weeks without measurable rainfall across much of, if not all of, the area. All that having been said, the system that is bringing rain into our forecast will not come without hazards as the environment will also be favorable for isolated strong to severe storms, especially along and West of the US-131 corridor South of M-46.
Discussion:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front dives through Michigan through the day today. As aforementioned, the environment appears favorable for an isolated severe storm threat at the very least and I would argue may even be supportive of a more scattered severe weather risk, especially if some of the cloud cover can dissipate ahead of storm arrival this afternoon.
Temperatures will once again soar into the mid to upper 80s today with at least some sunshine allowing for the warm, moist airmass (dewpoints in the 60s) to destabilize to a modest degree with Surface-Based CAPE (storm energy near the surface) values in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range and DCAPE (downdraft CAPE - the amount of potential energy available in the downdrafts that can mix strong wind gusts down to the surface) at relatively high values (over 1000 J/kg).
Couple those thermodynamic values with strong lift and modest shear (winds changing speed and/or direction with height) fueled by the low-level-jet and short-wave and we have really set the stage for some strong storms with the potential for isolated to scattered severe winds and hail.
Cloud cover and perhaps even some pre-frontal showers along the lakeshore this morning could easily be a wrench in the system though so we'll need to continue monitoring how all of this evolves through the day. As aforementioned, if we avoid more of this cloud cover I would not be surprised to see a more scattered severe risk as compared to the isolated severe threat currently expected... but that particular scenario isn't all that likely at this time.
Regardless, the most likely time frame for any severe storms will be from early this afternoon through 8:00 PM this evening. The thunderstorm threat will very quickly diminish after sunset this evening with the lack of continued surface heating.
Comments