There is a 15%-30% risk for school closings for areas along and West of US-127. There is a >0% chance for school closings for the remainder of our coverage area East of US-127.
Summary:
Issued at 08/25/2024 1:28 PM EDT
Very hot and humid conditions with heat index values forecasted to climb into the low to mid 90s by early afternoon may result in isolated to scattered school closures on Monday.
Discussion:
A formidable late-season heat dome weather pattern moves into the Great Lakes region today and last through the middle part of the week. This heat dome will usher in very warm temperatures for Monday as highs soar into the upper 80s and low 90s. These temperatures, combined with high humidity/dew point values will result in heat indexes in the mid to upper 90s across Lower Michigan with the greatest concentration of 95°F+ heat indices will be West of US-127.
By noon on Monday, heat index values will be approaching 90°F across the region and will further climb into the mid 90's by the end of the school day. For this reason. while not totally ruling out schools closing preemptively, I think that early dismissals are much more likely and for that reason this outlook and the associated probabilities are based on the chances for school closures OR early dismissals.
Schools that do not have A/C will be much more likely to close than those that do have A/C. This outlook assumes that at least 1 school building in each district does not have A/C for consistency.
A Few Notes About School Closing Outlooks This Year
We will release school closing outlooks after Noon EDT for the next school day in the period whenever Owen or myself are able to. This should be most of the time but there may occasionally be events, especially minor ones, that we do not issue outlooks for.
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