Friday 05/24/2024:
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the southwestern portion of our coverage area to a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather on Friday.
The system driving this risk will be very similar to this past Tuesday's severe weather threat. A squall line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe and pose a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, will move across the region from the West and Southwest Friday afternoon and into the evening hours.
There is still some solution disparity amongst the various computer weather models but most foresee a weakly favorable environment that would be supportive of a rather low-end hail and wind threat across much of the West Michigan area. The tornado risk, thankfully, appears to be negligible (less than 2%) across the entire region.
Some model solutions suggest two rounds of showers and storms with the first in the early to mid-afternoon hours and the second, potentially more potent round, later in the afternoon through the evening hours. The greatest threat for severe weather will be along and South of the I-96 corridor, West of US-131, between 3:00 and 9:00 PM tomorrow.
There are certainly some forecast details to be worked out surrounding this risk and the bottom line, especially with Michiganders beginning their Holiday Weekend outdoor activities, is that we need to be #WeatherAware and stay tuned for updates later this evening and tomorrow!
Storm Chasing Operations may become necessary tomorrow afternoon and into the evening so make sure you are following us on social media and YouTube!
Sunday 05/26/2024:
After potential severe weather on Friday and a quieter, more mild and pleasant day on Saturday, we turn our eyes to Sunday.
The SPC has highlighted a >30% Risk of Any Severe Weather delineation across parts of Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Southern Indiana and a broad 15-30% Risk delineation surrounding that through the rest of Indiana, into parts of Illinois, Ohio and extreme Southwest Lower Michigan to include the cities of New Buffalo, Three Oaks, Galien, Buchanan, and Turner Shores in far Southwest Berrien County.
Substantial model discrepancies give question to the northward extent of the severe weather risk on Sunday but the bottom line is that some models do suggest that there will be at least a low-end "all hazards" severe weather threat across parts of far Southwest Lower Michigan.
Expect updates and substantial changes to the severe weather forecast for Sunday in the coming days.
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