Low Confidence In Severe Weather Potential Thursday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of extreme southwestern lower Michigan under a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for Severe Weather on Thursday.

Southwestern portions of Berrien County have been placed under this aforementioned risk. Confidence in severe weather occurring on Thursday is low at this time as there are still questions about whether storm initiation can occur far enough south of the warmer air to support the development of severe thunderstorms.

If storms do form far enough south to pose a severe threat, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with regard to whether or not the environment will support a severe weather threat this far north and east, into lower Michigan. If a severe weather threat does come to fruition it could be an "all-hazards" risk with the possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Regardless of any severe weather threat, thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and perhaps some small hail are possible on Thursday evening across much of southern and southwestern lower Michigan.

Stay tuned for future updates as we await for higher-resolution computer weather model data to give us a better picture of the potential for severe weather.