As we enter the final half of the Holiday Weekend we are faced with one more opportunity for severe weather here in West Michigan.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for Southern Lower Michigan along and South of the I-94 corridor and a broad Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for areas to the North of I-94, up through the I-96 corridor, to a line extending from near Whitehall to near Flint.
While the overall threat for severe weather is low, and confidence in severe weather actually occurring is low, all severe hazards are on the table today with damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH being the main threat, a smaller risk for large hail to 1 inch in diameter, and a non-zero risk for an isolated, weak tornado or 2.
While areas along and to the South of the I-94 corridor have the greatest chance of seeing severe weather today, especially in terms of the damaging wind gust threat, it should be noted that the entire area to the South of a Whitehall to Flint line is at risk for all-hazards.
Timing for today's severe weather threat is a little bit tricky. Showers and embedded thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe and pose a primary risk for small to large hail) will move through the Southern parts of our forecast area late this afternoon around 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM. With this first round, questions remain as to whether or not there are enough environmental parameters for storms to pose that large hail threat over West Michigan. A second round of more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in the late evening hours bringing the all-hazards threat to the areas that do see storms later this evening. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the ability for the environment to produce and sustain additional showers and thunderstorms in the wake of the first round of convection, let alone allow additional thunderstorms to intensify and reach severe status.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are also possible, especially in areas that may see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. The WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall today.
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