Summary: Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move into Lower Michigan today, overnight tonight, and into the day tomorrow. Each of these rounds will be accompanied by at least some potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, and/or severe weather though the potential for any of these things is not particularly high.
Round #1 (This Morning):
Strong thunderstorms are moving onshore as of 8:00 AM this morning and will impact areas generally South of a Holland to Lansing line through mid to late morning. Strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief instance of some large hail could prompt a Special Weather Statement or even a brief Severe Thunderstorm Warning over the next hour or so as these storms move onshore. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern with these storms.
As of this discussion's release the storms in the radar loop above have likely transitioned off to the Southeast of Kalamazoo but we're including this here to give some additional context to our forecast discussion this morning.
This is a highly conditional setup, at least as far as severe weather is concerned across the area. The reason that the threat for severe weather is so conditional today is because each new round of showers and storms will have to contend with, and attempt to take advantage of, the environment left in the wake of the previous round. The round in the radar loop above for example has to contend with the round we saw very early this morning around 12:30 AM.
This Afternoon: We look to mostly dry out for the afternoon though with the environment in place over the area we can't rule out an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm.
Again, given the fact that the atmosphere has now been worked over by this mornings rain showers and thunderstorms, it will be very difficult for any isolated activity early this afternoon to become strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary hazards with any of this activity.
Late This Evening Into Tuesday:
Our primary focus is on the overnight period from late this evening into the day on Tuesday.
Locally heavy rainfall and some minor flooding (mainly concentrated in urban areas during the morning commute on Tuesday) will be the primary concern for this round of showers and storms. Severe weather is not likely with this round given the unfavorable overnight timing and the overworked atmosphere in place.
Swaths of total rain accumulations of 1, to possibly 3 inches are possible overnight into Tuesday given the moisture-rich environment and high PWAT values still on the order of about 2 inches per the NWS WPC/GRR.
Overnight flooding is always a concern for us because it is nearly impossible to see with the naked eye. Exercise plenty of caution overnight tonight and during the morning commute tomorrow and remember; Turn Around Don't Drown - never drive through flooded roadways!
Tuesday Afternoon:
Locally damaging wind gusts are possible generally along and South of the I-94 corridor, especially East of the I-69 corridor as some renewed thunderstorm development may be able to strengthen in the wake of tonight's heavy rain showers and storms.
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