Summary: Warm, humid weather continues today and tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms forecasted. The best chances for more widespread/prolific heavy rainfall, compared to the relatively low chances we've seen the rest of the week, will exist today. Additional chances for heavy rain will exist tomorrow. Day 1 - Today (Thursday 08/01/2024):
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be the theme today. A surface-low tracking into the region from the Western Great Lakes region will provide better forcing mechanisms to serve as a spark for shower and storm development across the region today as compared to earlier this week.
Having said that, this is still relatively weak with regards to the overall wind dynamics present within the atmosphere, so while we will have 3/4 elements we look for with regards to severe weather potential (instability, moisture, lift, and wind shear), we will be lacking strong wind shear to promote a more robust/widespread severe weather threat. Still can't entirely rule out an isolated strong to severe storm late this afternoon into the overnight hours, especially with Southern extent, but chances locally are relatively low. Better chances for severe weather should remain South of the MI/IN/OH border.
With regard to the heavy rainfall/flooding threat: Area-wide excessive rainfall threat today. The NWS Weather Prediction Center has a level 2/4 "Slight Risk" for Excessive Rainfall in place for a large chunk of our Southwestern coverage area in it's latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
This risk indicates that there is a 15-39% chance for rainfall totals or rates to exceed Flash Flood Warning criteria within 25 miles of any given point. A broad level 1/4 "Marginal Risk" (5-14% chance) surrounds the aforementioned Slight Risk area and covers the remainder of our coverage area.
Because of the scattered nature of the showers and storms, only scattered flash floods are possible, hence the overall Slight Risk. So not everyone will see showers and storms today. However, given the very moist environment in place across lower Michigan today, areas that do see rain and storms will likely experience heavy rain with rain rates easily exceeding 1 inch per hour at times and could easily see total rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches.
Persons who do experience heavy rain and storms today will need to remain vigilant and watch for flooding and severe weather. Please report any severe weather or flooding to us at https://www.westmichiganweather.net/storm-reports.
Day 2 - Tomorrow (Friday 08/02/2024):
Scattered showers and storms will continue into tomorrow (Friday) especially along and South of the I-96 corridor. These showers and storms will have very similar attributes as today's do and will likely be prolific heavy rainfall producers and will carry attendant flooding risks.
One caveat is that the severe weather threat tomorrow should largely be negligible.
Rain chances should taper off by Friday evening and will lead into a very warm but dry Saturday.
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